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The behavior of systems under uncertainty can be described on a spectrum ranging from fragility, where losses are disproportionate to variations, through resilience, where losses and gains are proportional to changes, to antifragility, when gains disproportionately exceed volatility. In this study, Arena™ discrete event simulation software was used to compare the behavior of key variables under different levels of volatility in two production models: mass production and just-in-time, applied to a bicycle factory that uses three different types of metal. The results indicate that, when subjected to the same exogenous variables, the models react differently to different types of volatility, displaying, in different scenarios, characteristics of fragility, resilience or antifragility.

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